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Prediction for CME (2025-06-28T21:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-28T21:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39818/-1
CME Note: CME observed as a faint partial halo, nearly a full halo, directed towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, and a brighter front to the NE in STEREO A COR. Also faintly observed in currently available frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a C4.0 flare from AR 14126 (N07W22) which peaked at 2025-06-28T19:54Z observed in SDO AIA 131, alongside brightening in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and a small dimming SW of the region best seen in SDO AIA 193.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-02T15:02Z (-11.49h, +11.12h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/06/28 20:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 3:00
POS Midpoint: 11:10Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.17
Travel Time: ~6.17 * 14:40 = 90:32

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-07-02T15:02Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/29 19:13Z
Lead Time: 67.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-06-29T19:15Z
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